A Democrat’s Dream Come True: The Unlikely Scenario of Biden v DeSantis v Trump :: Articles
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A Democrat’s Dream Come True: The Unlikely Scenario of Biden v DeSantis v Trump

Posted: 7/5/23

By Vincent Scala

The absolute dream race in 2024 would be a race where Donald Trump narrowly loses the Republican nomination for the Presidency to DeSantis (whom he apparently detests) and decides to run for President on a 3rd party ticket (Reform Party, People’s Party, Make America Great Party, America First party). This race, besides being a hell of a lot of fun would be a Democrat dream come true.

Here’s the scenario. Somehow, DeSantis wins the Iowa caucuses. Trump is “bloodied” going into New Hampshire but manages a comeback (think Hillary Clinton 2008). The race then shifts to the South and Trump wins South Carolina but DeSantis is able to win the important state of Florida where he and Trump are both residents but where he has more institutional support than Trump. Trump screams “foul” (big surprise) and accuses DeSantis of engineering the win to protect the establishment politicians and hacks. The race goes back and forth but this time, unlike ’16, the party big wigs and poobahs manage to hold Trump off and he loses the nomination narrowly (I guess the comparison would be Ford v Reagan in 1976).

Trump decides to run as an Independent. He skewers DeSantis almost as much as he skewers Biden. DeSantis is a phony, doesn’t connect with people, on and on. Mostly mindless nonsense but mindless nonsense works like a charm with the red meat base!! Trump selects none other than Kari Lake of Arizona as his VP running mate. She’s relatively young, an absolute killer on the stump, knows the camera from her years as a reporter and did come within a point or so of being elected Governor in 2022. Of course, she has zero experience but again, that isn’t going to stop anyone in 2024.  Trump had no experience in government either when he won the electoral college (he lost the popular vote by 3+ million votes in 2016).

DeSantis plays it safe and selects a computer generated running mate. Since he probably needs a woman, he decides on Nikki Haley of South Carolina. Former governor, former UN Ambassador and a losing candidate for the nomination. Nicely balanced but the appeal is probably limited if not zilch.

How does such a scenario play out.  Well, it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to realize that Biden will almost definitely in this situation win the important states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin & Michigan. He’d likely win the states of Georgia and Arizona again. In this scenario, Biden would have a real shot at winning Florida and Texas in a 3 way race since all he would need is 40% or less of the vote to win a contest against Trump and DeSantis.  

Even if Biden didn’t carry Florida or Texas (or Arizona and Georgia actually), Biden wins the electoral college handily. If he adds those important states, he ends up with a big electoral college victory. The "blue” states stay blue since neither DeSantis nor Trump were going to win them alone, let alone while splitting their support.  

The Hispanic vote breaks largely for Biden with some chunk going to Trump and a share going to DeSantis. Still, it probably breaks at least 3-2 for Biden if not a bit higher. Same thing with the African American vote. Biden gets his 90% or so and DeSantis gets next to zip!! That’s right, zip. Trump possibly takes 5, 6, 7% of the African American vote made up largely of younger black men who like his machismo, tough talk and the rest.   

White suburban women give Biden at least 55% of their vote and the other 45% get split between the others (how I don’t have a clue).

Trump skewers DeSantis while Biden sits back and looks like an old, wise, calm President. Trump calls DeSantis names and does the same with Biden but the press and the attention are all focused on DeSantis/ Trump. DeSantis barely defends himself as he’s afraid of alienating that shrinking but incredibly loud, obnoxious and angry white base, male and female.  

The election is likely called ON election night. Biden and Harris are reeelected to a second term.  

Vincent Scala is a former Bronx Assistant District Attorney. He is currently a criminal-defense attorney in New York City and its suburbs.